Former US president Donald Trump's
election victory in the United States is sending shivers through
Europe, which fears a déjà vu of transatlantic tensions over
defence spending and tariffs on EU products sold to the US.
What's at stake for Europe and the EU when Trump returns to the
White House?
The looming return to power of the Republican former President
of the United States of America, Donald Trump, has sent
shockwaves through Europe and the European Union after he
triumphed in elections against Democrat Kamala Harris on
Wednesday.
Most urgent among the threats posed by Trump's return are the
fear he could upend European security and pull the plug on
support for Ukraine, while simultaneously unleashing a trade war
with steep tariffs on European goods. At the same time, Europe
is in a fragile situation as on the same day the government
coalition of its largest economy, Germany, collapsed over rifts
on spending and economic reforms.
A number of European leaders publicly welcomed the 78-year-old
president-elect's victory with a willingness to collaborate to
improve the transatlantic relationship and work together for
peace, including a cautious German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and
French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as a joyous Hungarian
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and also Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for a "just peace" in Ukraine.
In Serbia, president Aleksandar Vučić said that he expects good
relations with the US and that this victory "will have a healing
effect on global conditions". He stressed that he expects
pressure from the US when it comes to Serbia's close cooperation
with China which, according to him, Trump perceives as the US'
strategic opponent on the global stage.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), society is deeply divided and
different communities have mixed reactions to Trump's election
victory. It is being welcomed in Republika Srpska, the
Serb-majority entity. BiH Presidency members Željko Komšić and
Denis Bećirović highlighted the importance of the US as a
strategic partner and saw an opportunity to bolster bilateral
relations. However, analysts believe US policy towards BiH -
namely, supporting regional stability and integration into
European and Western institutions - will stay unchanged.
The second vice-president of the Spanish government, Yolanda
Díaz, said "Trump's victory is bad news for all citizens who
understand politics as a tool that improves our lives, not one
that intoxicates them with hatred and disinformation".
European leaders convene on shaky grounds
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recalled the
"true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million
citizens" and called on Trump to "work together on a strong
transatlantic agenda that keeps delivering for them".
The ultra-nationalist Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán greeted
Trump's victory with a call for the EU to develop a new strategy
on Ukraine. Orbán is a close ally of Trump. Currently, Hungary
holds the six-months rotating presidency of the Council of the
European Union.
European leaders on Thursday convened in Budapest for the fifth
meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) as well as an
informal summit of EU leaders on Friday. Originally talks were
scheduled to address the economy, migration, recent elections in
EU candidate country Georgia, the spiralling conflict in the
Middle East, and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. EU
leaders were also expected to agree on a new strategy to revamp
the bloc's economic competitiveness.
However, the return of Trump overshadowed the agenda, especially
as leaders in the EU and of other countries bordering Russia
struggle to absorb the uncomfortable outcome of the US elections
and what it means for transatlantic relations.
From support for Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) and the de-risking strategy with China, to the commercial
and technological partnerships that had resumed with the
Democrats in power: everything could now change.
US defence commitments cast into doubt
The incoming US president has repeatedly questioned the US'
security commitments to NATO - a military alliance of 32 member
states - in anger over low defence spending by European allies.
Trump has also criticised US President Joe Biden for providing
military aid to Ukraine and claimed that he could end the
Russian war of aggression in one day after taking office,
provoking worries Ukraine may be pressured to surrender.
Trump denounced the fact that some of the European allies were
failing to meet the alliance's defence spending targets - set at
two percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - and raised doubts
as to whether the US would fully stand by its commitment under
his leadership. However, Trump did not repeat earlier threats of
withdrawal from the alliance.
An outstretched hand to collaborate with Trump to promote peace
came from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "Through NATO, the
US has 31 friends and Allies who help to advance US interests,
multiply American power and keep Americans safe," the former
Dutch prime minister said. "Together, NATO Allies represent half
of the world's economic might and half of the world's military
might," he added.
Rutte also said Trump "demonstrated strong US leadership
throughout his first term in office - a term that turned the
tide on European defence spending, improved transatlantic burden
sharing, and strengthened Alliance capabilities".
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius - who needs to
be officially confirmed in his new role as European Commissioner
for Defence - pointed out that European countries had ramped up
their budgets since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He said the
bloc needs to spend more on rearming because of threats from
Russia - not because it is a demand by US president-elect Donald
Trump.
Bulgarian MEP Eva Maydell (EPP) predicted "tough negotiations"
with the US on defence spending in NATO but pointed out that a
lot of countries have realised that two percent is the bare
minimum that should be spent on defence. "The question now is
whether we can devote more than that percentage. We do not know
what Donald Trump's attitude to NATO will be, whether he will
want to reform it, whether he will want to stay in it," she
added.
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