(ANSA) - ROME, SEP 4 - The European Union (EU) can expect to see an increase in the number of people arriving at its external borders in the period 2023/2024 in search of safety or better opportunities, according to a risk analysis by the EU border agency Frontex, published Monday.
    "Developments on the ground" in a number of countries of origin and transit, driven by "global macroeconomic factors" including persistent inflation and global recession, will "negatively impact" on the socioeconomic conditions of large populations and herald an increase in migration flows to Europe, Frontex said.
    By 2023/2024, it is "likely" that the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes leading respectively from Turkey to Greece and Cyprus and from north Africa to Italy "will see increased migration activity and a higher share of total migration flows to the external borders of the EU", Frontex added.
    Last month the EU border agency reported that the Central Mediterranean remained the most active route into the EU in 2023, with over 89 000 detections reported by national authorities in the first seven month of the year, a rise of 115% over the same period in 2022.
    This was the highest total on this route for the period January-July since 2017.
    Conversely, in the same period arrivals on the Eastern Mediterranean route were said to have fallen by 29% compared to 2022. (ANSA).