Italy is set to hold a general
election on September 25 after President Sergio Mattarella
dissolved parliament on Thursday following outgoing Premier
Mario Draghi's resignation, with a coalition of right and
centre-right parties tipped to win.
The government of national unity headed by the former president
of the European Central Bank (ECB) collapsed after a year and a
half in power after failing to get the backing of three
important parties, ex-premier Giuseppe Conte's 5-Star Movement
(M5S), Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) and Matteo
Salvini's League, in a confidence vote on Wednesday.
The right-wing Brothers of Italy (FdI) party led by Giorgia
Meloni, the only major group not to back Draghi's government, is
currently top of the opinion polls, with the support of around
23% of the electorate.
The right-wing League is polling at around 13-14% and
centre-right FI around 8%, which combined should give the
right/centre-right a working majority in parliament if it
translates into real votes at the ballot box.
If the right/centre-right win and the FdI is the party to get
most votes, Meloni would be in strong position to become Italy's
first woman premier.
The right's chances appear to be boosted by the problems faced
on the other side of the political spectrum.
The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the M5S, which has
lost some of its anti-establishment credentials after being part
of the last three governments, had been expected to run together
at the next election.
But this alliance has been thrown into doubt by the fact that
M5S triggered the crisis that led to the collapse of Draghi's
government by snubbing a confidence vote on a decree last week.
The PD, which is a close second to FdI in the polls, stood by
Draghi until the end.
There are also several small centrist and left-wing parties
polling under 5%, most of them well under this threshold.
If the PD, the M5S, which is polling at only 10-11% after
winning around a third of the vote at the 2018 general election,
and these smaller parties do not agree a pact, their chances of
stopping the right/centre right appear slim at the moment,
according to political commentators.
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