Thorsten Nestmann, vice president
and senior analyst with Moody's Investors Service, on Friday
said that Italy was in a "momentum phase" regarding reforms, and
that the government's estimate that reforms will grow GDP 1.8%
between now and 2020 is "reasonable".
"Instability has been a problem for Italy for many years.
The outlook for potential governments that last longer is, in
our view, positive, and heads in the right direction," Nestmann
said.
The government's new public guarantee on non-performing
loans (GACS, in its Italian acronym) will result in a "rather
modest" reduction on non-performing loans, which amount to 200
billion euros, but within three years should be reduced by
one-fifth, said Carlo Gori, vice president and senior analyst in
Moody's Financial Institutions Group.
Gori called it a "useful but not decisive measure" and said
that Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) should find a
partner, especially given that it has undergone a process of
securitization.
Gori said the market reaction to banks since the beginning
of the year has been "excessive" and that banks are "much more
solid than in 2008, with capital doubled".
Gori said the market is less liquid and more volatile
because investment banks have left the capital market.
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