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In CEE 'door wide shut' to Russia, China influence

Less established democracies targeted by authoritarian regimes

05 December, 11:15
(by Stefano Giantin) (ANSA) - BELGRADE - Countries in Central- and Eastern Europe, in particular the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, are "vulnerable to the political influence of authoritarian regimes" such as Russia, China and Turkey, according to a new report, "Doors Wide Shut." "Doors Wide Shut" is a result of a project carried out in cooperation between the Hungarian think tank Political Capital, the Slovak political analyst Grigorij Meseznikov and the Prague Security Studies Institute, funded by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.

"The Central and Eastern European region is particularly vulnerable to the political influence of authoritarian regimes," including China, Russia and Turkey, countries that employ different influence strategies in an area where "democracies are less established, institutions are weaker and local governments themselves employ populist narratives to maintain their popularity," said the study, produced by Patrik Szicherle, Grigorij Meseznikov, Jonas Syrovatka, Jakub Merc and Peter Kreko. According to the paper, authoritarian regimes "have the easiest task in Hungary," as the government in Budapest is seeking since years to become a "bridgehead" between the East and West. This "leaves the door wide open to authoritarian influence over the country." Hungary is encouraging "Russian, Chinese and Turkish investments into the economy to finance pro-government oligarchs," often "hindering" decisions at EU level for this purpose, the researchers wrote. Among the examples cited in the study, "the establishment of the headquarters of the Kremlin-backed International Investment Bank (IIB) in Budapest, which could serve as a Russian intelligence hub, or the opening of the first Turkic Council Office in Hungary, which could intensify lobbying efforts by Turkic states to influence Budapest's decisions in the Western institutional system." Slovakia and the Czech Republic are experiencing a less strong influence by authoritarian regimes, although those "have their supporters in political and economic life, including Czech President Milos Zeman and Slovak Parliament Speaker Andrej Danko." "Thus, in these countries, authoritarian regimes - mainly Russia and China - are active "by courting anti-West political forces," in the economic sector, with investment projects, and through the intelligence, the study said. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary share common vulnerabilities to threats from foreign authoritarian regimes.

In particular, Russia is exploiting "energy dependence", "information sharing between local officials and the Kremlin" but also "the pro-Russian views of some layers of the local populations", where local pro-Kremlin portals are making propaganda actions. China is focusing on "local government's too high expectations on what economic benefits cooperation with Beijing might bring." "Turkey is less of a threat due to its limited financial capabilities and the fact that it is a NATO member and an EU candidate country. Only Hungary is showing systemic vulnerabilities to Turkey, mainly the close personal and nepotistic ties of the Hungarian PM and Turkish governmental and pro-government actors," the research noted.

In general, Moscow, Ankara and Beijing are increasing their influence in the region as they can use local "friendly political actors" in order "to disrupt the unity of the Western community and influence certain policies" and "the coming to power of illiberal regimes" in Europe helps them to "relativize their own political systems," the research noted. "Our research shows that once a pro-Eastern government is in power in a Western country, Eastern authoritarian regimes have a relatively clear path to influence the decisions of Western institutions," the study said. (ANSA).

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