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Kosovo holds general elections, outcome uncertain

All major parties run for victory, focus on dialogue with Serbia

04 October, 23:29
(di Stefano Giantin) (ANSA) - BELGRADE, 04 OCT - People in Kosovo will go to the polls for an early parliamentary election on Sunday, an important and at the same time uncertain vote called as the Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned in July, after being summoned by a Special Court in The Hague dealing with war crimes and crimes committed after the 1999 conflict in Kosovo. Voters will choose 120 new MPs and who will lead the country for the next four years, a fundamental period in particular for the dialogue with Belgrade for the normalization of relations with Serbia and for Pristina's European path.

"Analysts have estimated the forthcoming parliamentary election as one of the most uncertain" since Kosovo first general elections of 2001 and since the unilateral independence from Belgrade in 2008, said the Ljubljana-based think tank Ifimes in a report on the Kosovo elections. "The main race will take place between three main political rivals," Ifimes noted.

Among them, Isa Mustafa's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), which "has this time placed its bets on a young woman politician, Vjosa Osmani," the first and only woman running to become the next Prime minister, the portal Balkan Insight wrote.

Osmani "might appeal more to women voters however her campaign was not tactically addressing women needs and it might cause her having less votes by women then initially expected.

Nevertheless, its a great opportunity that she has run and opens up venues for more younger candidates and women running the race in the future," Ariana Qosaj Mustafa, political analyst and programme director at the Kosovar Institute for Policy Research and Development (KIPRED) told ANSA.

Serious contenders for the victory are also Albin Kurti's "Vetevendosje" Self-Determination Movement (LVV) and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) of Kadri Veseli. However, outgoing prime minister Ramush Haradinaj (Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, AAK) is also "trying to enter the race as the fourth competitor," the Ifimes report said. In his term, Haradinaj imposed a 100-per-cent tax on imports from Serbia and Bosnia, a countermeasure to the lobbying of Serbia against the entry of Kosovo in Interpol, bringing to a halt the dialogue with Belgrade. Another candidate is Fatmir Limaj, leader of the NISMA party. According to some polls, Ifimes noted, "citizens' orientation" seems currently to favor the Self-Determination Movement (LVV), which leads slightly before the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), while the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) are competing for the third place. However, other survey shows LDK leading with 29% of votes, followed by LVV (24%) and PDK (21%). The party that will get most of the votes will try first to form a coalition government.

"We cannot predict who will be the winner" this time and "I would not be surprised if any of the four main political forces would be the first one" at the elections, the political analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu told ANSA. However, "as it happened in the previous elections it will be needed to form a coalition to create a government, together with minorities" representatives, Spahiu notes. "In this case, I predict that LDK could be in any of the possible coalitions" with other major parties, "either as winner" or as minority partner. "It is disputable, if LDK wins, who will be the second partner" in the future government, "either Albin Kurti or Haradinaj's party," the analyst continues. "I think the upcoming elections will provide a chance to change the current political elite by two main running parties, Ldk and Vetevendosje," Ariana Qosaj Mustafa says. "The results will be very tight and slight percentages will determine most likely the winner and the party to form the new government. The race is interesting and opinion polls have been showing these two main parties as most likely to win. Differently, recent polls also have reclaimed the PDK also running for second place even though earlier they seemed far behind," Mustafa notes.

The outcome of the elections will also impact on the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, stalled since last November after Pristina introduced the tariffs against Serbian and Bosnia goods. All parties running at the elections, with the exception of Haradinaj's AAK, have criticized more or less openly the tariffs. The removal of tariffs "depends on whom will be the next Prime Minister, if he will be from LDK, PDK or even from Kurti's party, I believe tariffs will be abolished, but if Haradinaj will be prime minister again taxes will be removed only if Americans choose him as main actor in the dialogue" with Serbia, putting aside current President Hashim Thaci, Spahiu predicts.

"It is extremely difficult to predict the winner of the election, and to know which parties will form a coalition after the election. The result will be tight. One thing is clear: the new government will not be a government of economic development, but a government of agreement with Serbia," explains to ANSA the analyst Imer Mushkolaj. "Citizens consider these elections very important because they are crucial to the country's future and its integrity and sovereignty. Also as a chance of punishing bad governance so far," Mushkolaj adds.

Also Kosovo Serbs are expected to participate in the elections on Sunday to choose their 10 reserved MP seats in the Kosovo Parliament, with a likely victory in Serb-inhabited areas of the Belgrade-backed Srpska Lista, which could be a major player in the formation of the new government. (ANSA).

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