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IMF cuts GDP forecast to 0.6% too

IMF cuts GDP forecast to 0.6% too

You're a risk factor not us says Salvini

Davos, 21 January 2019, 19:21

Redazione ANSA

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The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it revised down its GDP growth forecast for Italy for 2019 to 0.6%, down from the 1% it predicted in October - in line with a similar reduction in forecast by the Bank of Italy last week. The IMF kept its forecast of 0.9% growth for 2020, it said in a statement. "We have revised downwards our forecasts for advanced economies slightly, mainly due to downward revisions for the euro area," the IMF said.
    The IMF said that Italy's financial situation was among the main risk factors for the global economy. "In Europe the Brexit cliffhanger continues, and the costly spillovers between sovereign and financial risk in Italy remain a threat," the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook. The Fund added: "Within the euro area the significant revisions are for Germany, where production difficulties in the auto sector and lower external demand will weigh on growth in 2019, and for Italy where sovereign and financial risks and the connections between them are adding headwinds to growth".
    Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini hit back against the IMF's statement labelling Italy a global risk factor. "Is Italy a threat and a risk for the global economy? "On the contrary, the IMF is a threat to the worldwide economy, with its recent history of economic recipes featuring mistaken forecasts, few successes and many disasters," anti-migrant Euroskeptic League leader Salvini told reporters in Rome.
    The other deputy premier, Industry and Labour Minister Luigi Di Maio said the International Monetary Fund's listing Italy and Brexit as global growth threats "does not discourage us" and there is "no turning back" on economic policy.
    "The European Commission president has already replied to the IMF saying they were wrong to trust the IMF on Greece with austerity," he said.
    "We are creating a new welfare state: we're aren't turning back, vis-a-vis people who actually define Italy one of the causes of the economic recession.
    "We can't accept it...If they think they can discourage us with some figures they're wrong: there's no turning back".
    Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said Italy is a not a risk factor for the global economy but the IMF's own policies are.
    "I don't think Italy is a risk, either for the EU or globally," he said.
    The risk, he said, came from the "policies advised by the IMF".
    At the IMF and at the European Commission, he said, "(they say) you must accumulate fiscal buffers to be ready and have the space to react in case of crisis, but with this thesis you don't see that in order to accumulate means to react to the crisis you create the crisis".
    Tria said "our public finances don't run any risk, first of all because they are estimated on a yearly estimate of 0.6%. Our commitments with the (European) Commission regard the structural deficit which therefore is not subject to a variation of the changing short-term trend".
    Tria also ruled out a supplementary budget saying there will only be one "if revenues and outlays change".
    The Bank of Italy said Friday that it, too, forecasts the Italian economy will grow 0.6% this year, down 0.4 of a percentage point on its previous prediction.
    The central bank said it foresees economic growth of 0.9% and 1% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while adding that there was a risk of the outlook being revised down.
    It also said that Italy may have dipped into recession in the second half of last year.
    In technical terms, a country goes into recession if it posts two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
    Salvini said Italy is "absolutely" prepared for a fresh economic contraction if it happens.
    Premier Giuseppe Conte said the situation showed the government was right to pass an expansive budget law for 2019, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio set to be over 2%.
    Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, meanwhile, said that EU budget rules sometimes make problems worse rather than solving them.
    "The idea that virtuous public finance behaviour should be imposed with limits that make deviant behaviour increasingly costly has not worked well," Tria said.
    "External limits sometimes aggravate the conduct that they want to correct.
   

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