Parliament's budget office (UPB)
on Monday warned that the government's budget plans could be
knocked off track by several factors of uncertainty.
"The major public finance measures planned by the government
appear to be subject to risks (weakness of the macroeconomic
climate and impact of the recent evolution in interest rates),"
the UPB told a parliamentary hearing in the government's budget
package, "and uncertainties (the effectiveness of spending
rationalization, the time to implement the 'citizenship wage'
basic income and reform of the pension system, the effective
realization of the values planned for investment spending)".
The UPB said that, given the slowdown in the economic
outlook, it confirmed its forecast of 1.1% growth this year, but
added that the downside risks for 2019 had increased.
It said this rendered the government's forecast of 1.5% GDP
growth in 2019 "even more ambitious than previously reported".
The office estimated that Italy's deficit-to-GDP ratio will
climb to 2.6%, higher than the government's forecast of 2.4%,
citing the impact of increases in the bond spread on the cost of
serving the national debt.
It also said that the government's plan to effectively lower
the retirement age, allowing people to end their working lives
when their age and number of years of social-security
contributions reach 100, will see people have State pensions
between 5-30% lower than under the current system.
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